While many Super Bowl prop bets are addressing whether or not players will do something good. This prop bet does the opposite–will each team’s quarterback throw an interception? Much of the storyline surrounding the Super Bowl involves the quarterbacks. Baltimore’s Joe Flacco has been considered a second rate quarterback for much of his career but has flourished this season. Colin Kaepernick has an opportunity to become the first rookie quarterback to win a Super Bowl and he’s revitalized a sometimes stagnant offense.
But this prop isn’t addressing the success of Flacco and Kaepernick but their short term ‘failure’. Let’s start by taking a look at Baltimore’s Joe Flacco:
Will Joe Flacco Throw An Interception:
Flacco played all 16 games throwing 10 interceptions for a 0.75 per game average. Of course that’s not the only way to evaluate the prop–we can look at Flacco’s performances in wins and losses. This means you’d bet this prop differently if you think the Ravens will win or lose the game. In 10 Baltimore wins Flacco averaged 0.4 interceptions per game and in 6 losses he averaged 1 per game.
But this prop asks if he will or won’t throw an interception, not how many. And quarterbacks can’t throw fractional interceptions. So let’s look at the game log–in sixteen regular season games Flacco threw interceptions in 9 of them. In three playoff victories he hasn’t thrown an interception.
Now let’s look at Colin Kaepernick of the San Francisco 49ers:
Will Colin Kaepernick Throw An Interception:
Kapernick’s phenomenal rookie season run included impressive accuracy–in 13 games he threw only three interceptions. He’s thrown 1 interception in 2 playoff games. He hasn’t thrown multiple interceptions in any game. The ‘plus money’ price on Kapernick to not throw an interception is attractive and especially if you think the Niners will win the game.
The position on Flacco is a little more difficult to analyze. But considering that he *didn’t* throw an interception in 7 regular season games and 3 playoff games we’re willing to take a shot on the negative for him as well. If you think that the Ravens will win the ‘No’ becomes even more attractive and if you think that the San Francisco 49ers will dominate defensively this is something you might want to reconsider.
Bet Joe Flacco to NOT throw an interception +155
Bet Colin Kaepernick to NOT throw an interception +105