Orb had been set as the 9/2 ‘morning line’ favorite by Churchill Downs handicapper Mike Bataglia on Wednesday following the post position draw. Orb’s ascension to favorite status was also somewhat of a surprise after Verrazano had occupied that position on most Kentucky Derby futures betting boards for most of the Spring. After the shakeup among the betting favorites during the week Orb dropped to 6/1 after Friday’s betting which left Revolutionary with Calvin Borel aboard and Goldencents the co-favorite. Revolution continued to get betting support throughout the day on Saturday–perhaps the bettors were thinking that the Borel/Revolutionary entry would be the right ‘horse for the course’ on a rainy day at Churchill Downs. But the rain didn’t materialize to the extent originally forecast and eventually had little impact on track conditions despite some splashy surface mud.

The pace of the race was something of a surprise–many handicappers expected slow fractions due to the lack of serious speed. It didn’t work out that way–Orb was left well in the rear of the field early after a hot early pace but rallied well to take the lead for good with just over a furlong remaining in the race. Longshot Golden Soul rallied for a second place finish ahead of the aforementioned Revolutionary. Normandy Invasion who briefly held the lead in the stretch after a big effort faded to fourth.

Orb’s connections were impeccable–arguably the best jockey in the business in Joel Rosario the popular win gave veteran trainer and Bluegrass State native Shug McGaughey his first Derby win. The Kentucky Derby was the fifth straight win for Orb, who won the Florida Derby and Fountain of Youth Stakes in his two previous starts. Orb paid $12.80, $7.40 and $5.40. The longshot Golden Soul provided his backers a nice payday for his ‘place’ effort returning $38.60 and $19.40. The show horse Revolutionary returned $5.40.

The late money is rolling in on a day where the betting handle is running slightly ahead of last year’s pace. There was a big drop in wagering on the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic but that’s to be expected–there’s nothing that turf horses hate more than soggy conditions and it was hard to determine just how much the rain had an impact on the Churchill Downs Turf course.

Post time favorites were actually co-favorites–Orb and Revolutionary both closed at 6/1. Orb was the morning line favorite while Revolutionary received a late surge of wagering thanks to some glowing media coverage and the presence of Churchill Downs master Calvin Borel. It’s still a wide open race without a clear favorite where–ironically the biggest overlay could be the horse that at one point was an overvalued favorite. That would be Verrazano who has been hovering at around 11/1 throughout today’s racing cycle.

There hasn’t been a clear cut favorite at any point during the Kentucky Derby betting cycle. That’s not the case in most years where the race will have one or two solid betting favorites. In fact, in many years the identity of the post time favorite is a foregone conclusion long before post time. This year, however, there’s been several horses vying to be the race favorite and as post time draws closer it’s looking more and more like the favorite at the start of the race will be the Todd Pletcher trained Revolutionary. Or at least it was–now a late surge of money has pushed Orb back into contention for the title of race time favorite.

There’s definitely a lot of upside with Pletcher’s horse. Revolutionary is coming off a win in the G3 Withers at Aqueduct. Revolutionary’s pedigree—dame Run Up The Colors and sire War Pass—suggest that he should have some stamina but as always the question is will that ‘theoretical’ stamina translate into ‘practical’ ability to handle a mile and a quarter in the Kentucky Derby? Won the Louisiana Derby but took everything he had to beat Mylute. Proponents view that as a sign of ‘heart’ and ‘toughness’, detractors suggest that he may not be as good as advertised. Pletcher will have him ready to run and he should be a Kentucky Derby contender. Jockey Calvin Borel is as good as anyone at Churchill.

Assuming he can get to the inside from a somewhat disadvantageous post draw, there’s a lot to like about Orb as well. Trained by Claude “Shug” McGaughey, Orb won the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park in February. Orb’s pedigree suggests that he’ll have the stamina for a mile and a quarter but unlike several of the contenders mentioned above the question is his speed. Orb’s stock improved in the Florida Derby where he found a way to win at an unfavorable face. Most experts think that he’s peaking at the right time and like his versatility.

Unlike most major sporting events which are sold out weeks, if not months, in advance, a spectator can make a last minute decision to attend the Kentucky Derby and get in to the facility. In fact, the so called ‘walk up’ business is a significant component of the overall figure for the race. There’s no doubt that the lack of a ‘marquee name’ among the 2013 field hurt this number since it results in a lower overall level of hype which makes it seem like less of a ‘must see’ event.

Of course many race goers are more concerned about drinking and socializing than horse racing and for them it’s all but certain that the dire weather forecast kept them at home. It has been raining on and off throughout the racing day though the soaking heavy rains never quite materialized (they’ll likely hold off until after the race). Still, on a day with unseasonably cool temperatures and off and on rain it’s evident that many ‘socializers’ made the decision to stay home and watch this year’s event on TV.

So it’ll be a ‘good but not great’ day at Churchill Downs and one that could have been much worse. It’s a marked contrast to the huge surge in attendance at Friday’s Kentucky Oaks–113,280 people attended the 2013 Kentucky Oaks, up 1.1 percent compared 2012. This year was the second-highest of all time, behind the 2010 number of 116,046. What is no doubt going to make the Churchill Downs bigwigs happiest is the fact that the wagering handle increase far outstripped the attendance increase–so not only were there more people in the stands but on a per person basis they were betting more than in 2012.

There’s definitely a lot of upside with Pletcher’s horse. Revolutionary is coming off a win in the G3 Withers at Aqueduct. Revolutionary’s pedigree—dame Run Up The Colors and sire War Pass—suggest that he should have some stamina but as always the question is will that ‘theoretical’ stamina translate into ‘practical’ ability to handle a mile and a quarter in the Kentucky Derby? Won the Louisiana Derby but took everything he had to beat Mylute. Proponents view that as a sign of ‘heart’ and ‘toughness’, detractors suggest that he may not be as good as advertised. Pletcher will have him ready to run and he should be a Kentucky Derby contender. Jockey Calvin Borel is as good as anyone at Churchill.

Revolutionary has it’s detractors including one of my trusted horse racing sources who exclaimed that he’d ‘never seen a worse Derby favorite’. That might be a bit of an overreaction but there could be a case made that Revolutionary’s favored status has more to do with nostalgia than handicapping. On a very similar rainy afternoon in 2010 jockey Calvin Borel guided Super Saver on a great trip through a big field on a muddy track to become the upset winner of the Kentucky Derby. True, Pletcher’s horses are always ready to run and there’s few better at Churchill than Borel but don’t be surprised if Revolutionary’s status has more to do with bettors recollection of 2010 and a number of huge deductive leaps that this is a similar race in a similar setting with the same jockey aboard. That may not be true, but it’s hard to go wrong with Calvin Borel at Churchill Downs.

The rain that was initially supposed to start mid morning held off until the afternoon thanks to a very slow moving weather system. The biggest fear throughout the day was heavy, soaking rains that would drench the turf track and turn the dirt track to slop but so far so good. The Louisville area will likely be in for a rainy night but the worst should hold off until after the Kentucky Derby has been completed.

It rained on and off all morning at Churchill Downs the dirt and turf tracks were holding up nicely. The radar shows a large and heavy rain system rain moving slowly from the southwest to the northeast. The official ‘interpretation’ of the forecast is definitely more favorable than it was before–the expected rain could start and stop throughout the afternoon which is a decided improvement over the intermittent rains expected earlier. That’s not only good news for spectators but for the grounds crew at Churchill Downs–it’s much easier to keep the track in good shape with breaks in the precipitation. And the weather system will bring about mild temperatures for race day which isn’t always the case in the sultry South–high temperatures are forecast to reach the low 60s.

Bottom line–it could be much worse. Of course anyone who has ever spent time in the Southeast knows that the weather can change quickly this time of year but horse racing fans and Kentucky Derby officials are keeping their fingers crossed that the 137th running of ‘The Run for the Roses’ will be won by the best horse, not the horse that runs the best in shoddy weather and track conditions.

This would continue the trend set by Friday’s Kentucky Oaks though the ‘distaff’ half of the big horse racing weekend at Churchill Downs saw a huge surge in wagering action. $14,241,311 was wagered on the Friday Kentucky Oaks.That’s not only a new record betting handle for the Friday Kentucky Oaks but also a sharp increase over 2012. The 2013 betting handle represented a 21.3 percent increase over the 2012 Oaks handle. Betting on the Kentucky Oaks itself was $2.5 million higher than last year despite a smaller than expected field of 10 entries compared to 14 entries that started the 2012 race.

The significant upswing in wagering on the Oaks also produced a record betting handle for the entire Friday card. $45.5 million was bet on the 12-race card compared to $39.9 million last year representing an increase of 14.5 percent. The attendance was also up slightly from 2012–113,280 people attended the 2013 Kentucky Oaks, up 1.1 percent compared 2012. This year was the second-highest of all time, behind the 2010 number of 116,046. What is no doubt going to make the Churchill Downs bigwigs happiest is the fact that the wagering handle increase far outstripped the attendance increase–so not only were there more people in the stands but on a per person basis they were betting more than in 2012.

Despite the slight uptick in wagering at Saturday’s Kentucky Derby there have been a number of problems reported. The most significant has been sporadic outages of the Churchill Downs ADW (Advance Deposit Wagering) system (essentially ‘wireless wagering’ on track). Given the volume of business on one of the biggest horse racing days of the year some problems are to be expected but the biggest complaint has been the lack of explanation or response by Churchill Downs officials at the track.

VERRAZANO: Verrazano was the presumptive favorite for most of the Spring. He was favored in the Churchill Downs futures betting pool as well as being the top choice in most Las Vegas sports books futures markets. Since then he’s fallen from favor in a big way stemming primarily from a less than impressive performance in the Wood Memorial. It was a narrow win but against what was supposed to be an undistinguished field that was enough to raise the red flag. Now his stock is slipping while other horses pass him by. In fact by race time he could represent a decent value.

ORB: Orb was the #2 choice for much of the Derby prep season. He was the beneficiary of Verrazano’s falling stock and following the Derby post position draw was installed as the ‘morning line’ favorite by Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia. He’s still ‘in the mix’ at 6/1 but is no longer the favorite. Trained by Claude “Shug” McGaughey, Orb won the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park in February. Orb’s pedigree suggests that he’ll have the stamina for a mile and a quarter but unlike several of the contenders mentioned above the question is his speed. Orb’s stock improved in the Florida Derby where he found a way to win at an unfavorable face. Most experts think that he’s peaking at the right time and like his versatility.

REVOLUTIONARY: Another Todd Pletcher trained prospect, Revolutionary is coming off a win in the G3 Withers at Aqueduct. Revolutionary’s pedigree—dame Run Up The Colors and sire War Pass—suggest that he should have some stamina but as always the question is will that ‘theoretical’ stamina translate into ‘practical’ ability to handle a mile and a quarter in the Kentucky Derby? Won the Louisiana Derby but took everything he had to beat Mylute. Proponents view that as a sign of ‘heart’ and ‘toughness’, detractors suggest that he may not be as good as advertised. Pletcher will have him ready to run and he should be a Kentucky Derby contender. Jockey Calvin Borel is as good as anyone at Churchill.

GOLDENCENTS: The Doug O’Neill trained Goldencents became a Derby favorite following an impressive showing in the Santa Anita Derby. He won this key prep race with relative ease posting a 102 Beyer but there is some concern about the less than impressive field he beat. Not sure if this horse is a legit contender or a beneficiary of hype from a good race at the right time. Getting a lot of love in the final days before the race and is arguably the ‘trendy’ pick among sharp handicappers as the only true speed horse in the field.

Overanalyze could be just the ticket. At first glance, he isn’t a particularly impressive entry for a number of reasons though these caveats are situational and not intrinsic to his breeding or pedigree. He is coming off an easy win in the Arkansas Derby but his detractors point out (correctly) that this win came against a very undistinguished field. Making matters worse, Overanalyze turned in a brutal 88 Beyer speed figure in that race–one of the lowest in history for an Arkansas Derby winner. Not only was it the lowest Beyer figure for an Arkansas Derby winner in the past twenty years it was *six points* lower than the second lowest result.

As is so often the case in horse racing, however, the statistics could only tell part of the story. The Oaklawn track may have had a ‘slow’ bias this spring and Overanalyze could have been a victim of the pace of the race as much as anything else. Of course he’s going into a Kentucky Derby field without much front running speed so it could be a similarly problematic pace. He does have great training from Todd Pletcher and may be a better horse than his recent performance suggests. At the very least, he could represent a decent value at 14/1 in a race without a strong favorite, let alone a dominating one. The weather could throw a monkey wrench into the works and it’s unknown how Overanalyze would react to the rain and/or poor track conditions. Then again, in a race with a completely unpredictable pace a decent horse at a decent price could be the way to bet the Derby this year.

In 1919, the modern ‘Triple Crown’ era began as Sir Barton became the first horse to win the Derby, the Preakness and the Belmont Stakes in the same year. The ‘Triple Crown’ concept wasn’t an immediate hit with the sporting public but when Gallant Fox became the second horse to win all three races in 1930 the horse racing fans were ‘all in’. In 1932, the schedule of all three races was reconfigured to the current format to better facilitate the competition and publicity generated by the Triple Crown. Before that, eleven times the Preakness was run before the Derby. On two occasions in the early 20th century, the Preakness and the Derby were run on the same day. On eleven occasions the Belmont Stakes was run before the Preakness Stakes.

The Derby was broadcast to a national television audience for the first time in 1952 and in 1954 the purse for the race exceeded $100,000 for the first time. In 1968, Dancer’s Image won the race but was disqualified afterwards after traces of a banned substance (Phenylbutazone) were discovered in a urine sample. Ironically, in the years since Phenylbutazone has become a commonly used anti-inflammatory drug and its use is now legal for race horses in Kentucky.

Among the most famous Kentucky Derby victors are horses that went on to win the coveted Triple Crown. Only eleven horses in history have earned this distinction and none since 1978. In addition to the aforementioned Sir Barton (1919) and Gallant Fox (1930) Derby winners that have gone on to win the Preakness and Belmont include Omaha (1935), War Admiral (1937), Whirlaway (1941), Count Fleet (1943), Assault (1946), and Citation (1948). After that, there was a twenty five year drought with no Triple Crown winners before Secretariat—considered by many the greatest race horse in history—won all three races in 1973. There would be two more Triple Crown winners in the 1970’s—Seattle Slew in 1977 and Affirmed in 1978. Jim Fitzsimmons (Gallant Fox, Omaha) is the only trainer to win more than one Triple Crown while the legendary Eddie Arcaro (Whirlaway, Citation) is the only jockey to accomplish the feat more than once.

The fastest time ever run at the Kentucky Derby’s current distance was turned in by Secretariat in 1973 when he completed the mile and a quarter in 1 minute 59 2/5 seconds. Further demonstrating the greatness of ‘Big Red’ was his astounding fractional times—every quarter mile of the race was faster than the one before it, which is virtually unheard of. The only other sub two minute times in the Kentucky Derby were run by Secretariat’s arch rival Sham, who finished 2/5 of a second behind the winner. In 2001, Monarchos turned in the only other sub two minute Derby run winning the race in 1:59:97.